With the federal government set to release its decision any day on the Northern Gateway pipeline, there still remain some hopeful but naive souls that believe there's a chance Prime Minister Stephen Harper and his cabinet will reject Enbridge's proposal to build a pipeline across Northern B.C., linking the Alberta oil sands to Kitimat.
The Vancouver Sun published a column by Kai Nagata, the energy and democracy director for the Dogwood Initiative environmental group, earlier this week, where he said that it won't be all that surprising if the Conservatives "toss Enbridge under the bus."
Nagata makes a compelling case about how badly the Northern Gateway file has been handled, by Enbridge and by the Conservatives. Nothing in his essay is incorrect, except for his conclusion.
The Harper Conservatives have too much skin in this game to fold now. They would rather double down on their bet than to muck their cards. The joint review panel gave its approval for the project with 209 conditions for Enbridge to meet before going ahead. The federal cabinet may add a few more conditions to that list but they won't be as onerous as the one outcome Nagata suggests - that the federal government will force Enbridge to obtain approval from all affected First Nations before proceeding, which would effectively kill the proposal.
Nagata ignores the most obvious reason why Harper can't back down.
How ridiciculous would the prime minister look, demanding U.S. President Barack Obama approve the Keystone XL pipeline from Alberta to the Gulf Coast but then reject a proposal to build a major new pipeline in Canada? Harper has little choice but to be consistent in his support of pipelines and the Alberta oil sands, otherwise Keystone XL is dead in the water and tens of billions of dollars in current and future development in the Canadian energy sector is in jeopardy.
There is another reason that Nagata neglects to mention why the federal government will approve Northern Gateway. The prime minister does not want to set the precedent that First Nations have veto power over major resource development projects. The inevitable court challenges from First Nations and environmental groups like the Dogwood Initiative will proceed immediately after the decision is announced, no doubt about it. Regardless, there will still be an expectation, by both the federal and provincial government, for Enbridge to continue to engage with B.C. First Nations as best it can. Support for the project ("social licence," they say) is the desirable goal but it is a want, not a need, for Northern Gateway to go ahead.
That social licence extends to Premier Christy Clark and her five conditions regarding Northern Gateway. As Nagata points out, she would have the mandate to withhold provincial construction permits but the reality is she won't. Simply put, Northern Gateway is not a hill Clark is prepared to die on. She might not like it but she won't let principle get in the way of politics.
In the final analysis, her five conditions will collide with her campaign vow of "finding a way to get to yes" on resource development. Eventually, she will give muted support to Northern Gateway, with a promise that her government will continue to be vigilant of the project, will work with Enbridge on safety, will work with affected communities and First Nations to make sure B.C. gets its fair share and so on.
Besides the court challenges, the last hope for opponents of Northern Gateway is that global market conditions worsen to the point that both the short-term and long-term profit margins of the pipeline would be in serious doubt.
In other words, unless Enbridge and its investors start believing they won't get paid the return they're expecting on Northern Gateway, this project is going to happen.
Once the court challenges are exhausted and the lawyers get paid, of course.
