Gwynne Dyer believes the Trump era might have a silver lining.
The internationally renowned journalist and author believes the rise of Trump, as well as populist movements in the U.K. and elsewhere in Europe, are clear demonstrations that everything is not fine. But they may provide the wake-up call that western democracies need before things get a whole lot worse.
Dyer, whose syndicated columns appear in newspapers around the world, will be sharing his insights with Prince George residents in a free public lecture on Monday night, entitled "The Trump era: surviving the populist wave."
Dyer believes there is little ideological link between the populist political movements that lead the Brexit vote in the U.K. and the MAGA-hat wearing masses who propelled Trump to the U.S. presidency. Neither movement was consistent with conservative ideology; Trump has managed to force the NAFTA agreement to be reopened, something that would have been unthinkable under previous Republican administrations.
Dyer believes what links these populism movements is the anger and humiliation of thousands of unemployed workers.
"The unemployment is a big part of the anger. If you look for where the votes came from that put Mr. Trump into office, it was the rustbelt states," Dyer said in a phone interview.
"Michigan hasn't voted republican since God wore short pants."
Dyer believes traditional measures of unemployment under-report the problem. Discouraged workers - those who have stopped applying for work - are often not factored into the counts used by governments like Canada, the U.K. or the U.S.
"There is much higher unemployment than anybody realizes on both sides of the pond, particularly in the United States," Dyer said.
"The real numbers are at least three times as high."
Dyer believes the trend of factory automation and outsourcing has helped create the rage-addled political culture of the Trump era, although the decline of the labour movement may also have played a role.
"The United States lost one third of its manufacturing jobs since 2000. That's five and a half million jobs gone. Eighty-five per cent of them were killed by automation," Dyer said.
"You've got to move on from that and talk about how you deal in a rich society with a lack of jobs. Basically our model is broken. We once could give pretty well everybody money in return for work. What do you do when you can't give them jobs. The answer is, you still have to give them money."
Dyer said the future of western economies may require policy solutions such as a Universal Basic Income. The program would provide all individuals with a basic, livable stipend. The Ontario government has begun Universal Basic Income pilot projects in several communities.
Dyer believes political decision-makers can no longer ignore the problem of mass unemployment.
"If you get the next 20 years wrong, you get mass unemployment and you haven't figured out how to keep those people from being angry and desperate, then you get a future like Blade Runner," he said.
Dyer's public lecture will be held on Monday at UNBC's Canfor Theatre at 7 p.m.
