The snow might seem unbelievable piled high along our driveways, but the amount of precipitation so far this winter is bang-on normal.
At least, it was normal until the record-setting snowfalls this weekend. Ministry of Environment officials are going back this week to the high elevation measurement sites in the mountains surrounding Prince George to take new readings.
Even before they headed back to the hills, however, the ministry's flood hazard technician for the area, Lyle Larsen, said there was little flood risk building up for the Nechako and Fraser rivers.
"It is pretty much par, all things considered," Larsen said. "We still have until mid-April before the snowpack typically peaks. By then we will have a good indication about runoff."
He explained that the accumulation has been back-loaded on the winter calendar, which might explain the word on the street prior to this weekend that it is piling up bigger than normal. In fact, he said, it just all came in at the end.
"The winter started off slowly," Larsen explained. "For the Upper Fraser, for Jan. 1, the snowpack was only at 54 per cent of normal. But we had heavy snowfall and by Feb. 1 the snowpack was at 90 per cent of normal, which means within 10 per cent of the usual amount. On the Nechako side, the snow was at 83 per cent of normal at Jan. 1, but it is now at 103 per cent so just a wee bit over normal."
Farther north, in the Peace River watershed so hard-hit in recent years by drought, the snowpack was likewise at only a few percentage points lower than normal after a slow start.
What's happening in the mountains also holds true down at city level as well, according to Larsen's data.
"Right here in the plateau around Prince George, we really started off with a slow accumulation. It was only at 36 per cent of normal by Jan. 1, but then we had fairly heavy accumulations and a thaw as well mixed in there. By Feb. 1 the snowpack was sitting at 98 per cent of normal, so it is right on what we should be typically seeing for this time of year in the City of Prince George."
Larsen is perhaps the most anxious local resident of all to know the true effects of the weekend's cascade from the sky. It isn't just curiosity and shovel fatigue for him; the results are linked directly to the fate of P.G.'s rivers when the warm weather finally does arrive. Too much heat all at once can cause a flood even if there isn't a lot of snow. Conversely, a cool spring can spread a walloping pile of snow out over the runoff season and no danger results down at river level. He is back in the high-country this week to get the latest data, coupled with the automated measurement sites that deliver realtime data to his flood forecast office. So far, however, the channels are clear of ice and the watershed is in no danger from the mountains. Yet.
