Beneath the doom and gloom about the potential havoc a Donald Trump presidency might wreak upon the Canadian and world economy, there are numerous opportunities for Canada in general and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in particular to score significant financial and political wins in the months and years ahead.
At the end of October, just days before American voters shocked the world by choosing Trump, The Economist magazine wrote a piece called "Liberty moves north: Canada's example to the world." In it, the magazine argues that Canada, not a divided Europe or an increasingly insular and out-of-touch America, is the last one "holding the torch of openness in the West."
For many people in many countries around the world, Canada is America's kinder and gentler little sibling, the place that believes in public health care, gun control, immigration, protecting the environment, tolerance and inclusion yet still likes development and trade.
While Trump is threatening to pull out of NATO, sticking it to Canada and Western Europe, Canada is signing trade deals with Europe. While Trump says he's going to put China in its place, Canada is working on closer economic and cultural ties with China. Trump wants to build a wall on the Mexican border while Trudeau believes people and capital should move freely across international borders (even if the premiers still allow only limited free trade between provinces).
For countries and multinational corporations looking for greater investment certainty, Trudeau and Canada may increasingly look like a safer bet than a bipolar Trump and a cranky America.
Yet Canada shouldn't have to turn its back on the U.S. Trudeau has signalled - both in word and deed - that he intends to work with Trump, stressing their common interest in jobs, growth and security.
Trudeau doesn't have to be Trump's best friend - he just needs to carefully step to the side and let others feel the wrath of another Trump Twitter rant.
If anything, Trudeau could place himself in an interesting spot that could serve both his interests and Trump's. Trudeau and his senior staff could serve as the conduits in back channel discussions between the U.S. administration and China, Russia, Europe and anyone else Trump is feuding with.
Trump can declare with all honesty that he won't talk to those people until they get serious about a better deal, even while his staff and advisers are negotiating through Canada.
The same scenario could work in reverse, as well, as an increasingly frustrated China realizes that the best way to get a hearing in the Oval Office might be through a door in Ottawa.
It's the unpredictability of Trump that is potentially dangerous.
On this front, Trudeau and Canada have to be on their toes. The opportunities for political and economic gain will come from exploiting the uncertainty of a rapidly changing playing field. This will require quick thinking and even quicker and bolder decision making. Sitting back patiently to see how everything pans out, such a Canadian trait, will not be rewarded.
At the same time, Trudeau (and the premiers) must resist the temptation when asked to comment on Trump's statements and actions, except in the most serious of situations. There is little to be gained by joining the latest rash of social media indignation. It doesn't mean Canada's political leaders can't disagree with Trump or speak out against his decisions but most of the time they won't have to. Others will do it on their behalf and they can keep their gunpowder dry for another day.
While there is no need to pick unnecessary fights with Trump, there is also no need to placate Trump, either.
Canada should promote its foreign policy agenda as forcefully as it ever has, with the knowledge that Trump's bluster will give this country plenty of room to operate on the global stage.
-- Managing editor Neil Godbout
