The past: In 1993 Brian Mulroney had become so unpopular among voters that it was clear he had to be replaced as party leader if the Progressive Conservatives were to have any chance of winning the next election. It did not work: after six months in office, the Tories under Kim Campbell elected so few members they lost official party status. In part, that was due to an upstart party on the right called the Reform Party that "split" the vote in many ridings, electing Jean Chretien's Liberals.
The past: In 1972, the 20-year reign of W.A.C. Bennett's Social Credit party - essentially a coalition of centre-right interests - came to an end when Darryl Warren pushed the B.C. Conservative Party to the fore, splitting the vote in so many ridings that Dave Barrett and the NDP carried the day. In 1975, Bill Bennett put the coalition back together and the Socreds won the election.
The past: In 1991 Social Credit leader Bill Vander Zalm got himself in hot water by appearing to mix government and personal business. The party replaced him with Rita Johnson, hoping she could win the next election. That did not work. The NDP under Mike Harcourt, and later Glen Clark, Dan Miller and Ujjal Dosanjh, ruled until 2001, when the centre-right again coalesced, this time under the Liberal banner with Gordon Campbell (following a failed attempt by Gordon Gibson in 1996).
The future: In 2013, a tired Liberal government will depose its unpopular leader and select someone new to lead them into the election. It will not work and the Liberals will be soundly defeated by the NDP, in part because disaffected Liberals will support a new - or perhaps reborn - party in the same part of the political spectrum, again, splitting the vote.
The uncertainty: Will some party - or some leader - be able to put the centre-right coalition together again quickly enough to limit the New Democrats to just one term?
Ralph Allan
Prince George
