Well, we finally have the results for the 2024 provincial election. The NDP hold 47 seats, the Conservatives have 44 seats, and the Green Party has the final two seats.
Or, at least, that is the way it stands as I write this. There are still judicial recounts to come which may alter the final tallies in some of the closer ridings. They are automatically triggered in tight races.
But assuming the numbers don’t change, the NDP will form government for the next four years and David Eby will remain as premier.
The Speaker of the House is typically elected from the governing party which would seem to put the numbers at 47 NDP and 46 opposition members resulting in tie votes. However, in the case of a tie, the speaker traditionally votes with the government.
We should have a few years of stability in government and won’t be back at the polls any time soon.
Now comes time for the analysis and I have heard a number of pundits say they are amazed by the surge in the Conservative vote. If we are talking just about the Conservative Party of BC, then yes, it would appear to be a surge – going from 1.91 per cent to 43.27 per cent. That would be amazing if it really was about the Conservative Party of BC.
But I would suggest it is not.
If you look at the numbers over the past five elections in this province, the NDP and the BC Liberals consistently pull about 40 per cent of the vote. Specifically, for the NDP, in 2020 it was 47.69 per cent, in 2017 40.29 per cent, in 2013 39.71 per cent, in 2009 42.15 per cent, and in 2005 41.52 per cent. For the B.C. Liberals, in 2020 it was 33.77 per cent, in 2013 40.37 per cent, in 2013 44.14 per cent, in 2009 45.82 per cent and in 2005 45.80 per cent.
I know that is a lot of numbers but essentially the message is that we are a province divided with roughly 40 per cent of the province favouring the left-leaning NDP and 40 per cent favouring the right-leaning B.C. Liberals and the Conservative Party of B.C. Neither party has really made in-roads on the 20 per cent in between. The Green Party has staked a claim but their showing in the most recent election (8.24 per cent) would suggest they are not making capturing the minds and votes of British Columbians. They really haven’t established themselves as a solid alternative.
There are a number of ways to frame the results. One friend said the election is about those who like the NDP and those that don’t. And the ones who don’t will vote for whatever party is not the NDP. In this case, that was the Conservative Party of BC. Was it amazing that they claimed 43.27 per cent of the vote, though?
We have a government. We have an opposition. The next four years will tell us whether either can make inroads into the middle.
