Housing market activity in B.C. reported significant gains in October following months of lackluster results. On a monthly basis, seasonally adjusted MLS home sales in B.C. reached 6,933 units, up by 15.3 per cent from the prior month. Year over year, sales jumped by 26.1 per cent. This acceleration in momentum suggests households are responding to the recent series of Bank of Canada rate cuts.
Within regions, sales increased in Greater Vancouver by 19.6 per cent on a monthly basis. Fraser Valley home sales increased by a similar amount. Sales also rose in Chilliwack (up 3.5 per cent), Vancouver Island excluding Victoria (up 6.7 per cent) and Victoria (up 7.2 per cent).
B.C. home prices continued to grow during the month, up by 0.7 per cent to $974,949. This was 8.6 per cent below the all-time high set in February 2022, and down from the 2023 peak by 3.1 per cent. In Chilliwack, home values rose by 2.9 per cent, while they increased on Vancouver Island by 0.3 per cent. Victoria home prices also went up by three per cent. A 0.8-per-cent decline in Greater Vancouver home prices suppressed overall price growth in the province.
Average prices can mask compositional sales effects. The benchmark price index—which accounts for home attributes and product composition—decreased marginally in October by 0.1 per cent. Lower Mainland benchmark prices, encompassing Greater Vancouver and the Fraser Valley, fell by 0.1 per cent. They rose by 0.8 per cent on Vancouver Island.
Residential new listings in B.C. decreased by 2.9 per cent, erasing some of the gains from the prior month. Market conditions are still balanced with a sales-to-new listings ratio of 51.4 per cent. We expect sales to continue rising given the substantial 50-basis-point rate cut announced by the Bank of Canada in late October. That and the prospect of more rate cuts on the horizon are improving financing conditions for prospective home buyers.
Manufacturing sales in B.C. rose one per cent to $5.3 billion in September. Non-durable goods industries experienced a decrease of one per cent in monthly sales, while there was a 2.6-per-cent increase in durable goods sales. On a year-over-year basis, B.C. manufacturing sales were 1.8 per cent lower than they were last September; they were also down by 2.4 per cent on a year-to-date basis.
Within the durable goods industries, mixed results were observed across categories, with a notable increase seen in wood product manufacturing, which saw a monthly increase of 4.9 per cent following a revised increase upward in August. That said, pressure will continue given a cascade of announcements related to mill closures in recent quarters. Fabricated metal product manufacturing registered an increase of 6.7 per cent. Transportation equipment manufacturing also experienced a notable increase in sales of 8.1 per cent, while primary metal manufacturing noted a 2.8-per-cent decrease during the same period. On a yearly basis, durable goods reported 2.7 per cent fewer sales, and non-durable goods industries in B.C. posted 0.6 per cent lower manufacturing sales.
Within the Vancouver metro area, manufacturing sales rose 1.6 per cent in the month of September, with durable goods industries growing 1.8 per cent and non-durable goods industries also up 1.4 per cent.
Bryan Yu is chief economist at Central 1.
