The Weather Network has released its summer forecast for Canada and if it turns out to be accurate, British Columbians are in for a warmer-than-normal next three months.
After three La Niña dominated years, almost all of B.C., with the exception of the north and central coast, will be under the influence of El Niño conditions in the Pacific. El Niño events are the result of result weaker trade winds near the equator which draws warmer sea surface temperatures to the North American coast. That expected to push dominant storm tracks into Western Canada this summer from south of the U.S. border.
The above-normal temperatures will extend into the southern Yukon, all of Alberta and the eastern half of Saskatchewan.
Unlike previous recent summers in B.C., persistent hot spells without relief are not expected and the changeable pattern with periods of cool and unsettled weather should reduce the risk of prolonged drought.
Near-normal precipitation is in the summer forecast for almost all of the province. except for the northwest and parts of the central Interior, including Prince George, and the southern Interior, where above-normal precipitation is expected.
That would be good news for our wildfire-prone forests that have lost a significant amount of the snowpack during a warm and dry May. In fact, this has been the second-warmest May on record and the eighth driest.
Environment Canada meteorologist Matt Loney went through records that date back to 1913 and the only warmer May in Prince George happened in 1998, when the mean temperature for the month was 14.2 C.
Not including today, the average daily high for May recorded at Prince George Airport was 22.1 C and the average daily low was 5.5 C, for a mean temperature of 13.9 C.
That’s significantly warmer than last year, when the average daily high of 13.3 C and the average low of 1.8 C resulted in a mean temperature of only 7.6 C. In 2021 the averages for May were 16.3 C and 2.4 C (mean of 9.4 C), while in 2020 they were 17.2 C and 3.2 C (mean of 12.2 C).
Two record-high temperatures were recorded over the past month. On May 5 we hit 28.8 C and on May 15 the mercury climbed to 30.6 C.
Just 26.5 millimetres of rain was measured at Prince George Airport. That’s just 55 per cent of the normal for this month of 49 mm. Most of that rain came during the Victoria Day long weekend when 19 mm fell from May 20-24.
No rain is in the seven-day forecast for Prince George.
After an overnight low of 2 C early this morning, we’re heading for a high of 17 C today.
Highs will range from 19-22 C over the next five days with lows dipping to the 4-6 C range, with sunny days expected to persist well into next week.
Loney said there’s a good chance for warmer-than-normal temperatures next week with a high of 26 C predicted for Tuesday.
